Simulation engine
Build a scenario
Adjust the levers below. The model recomputes vote share, swing, and confidence in real time.
Active simulation
Custom scenario user.draft
Confidence
82%
Candidate Alpha51.2%
Coalition front
Candidate Beta37.5%
Incumbent bloc
Other / Undecided11.3%
Floating
Sample
2.4M
Swing
6 reg
Youth
64.2M
Levers
Demographic & policy weights
Youth turnout64 %
Economic optimism50 %
Coalition strength35 pts
Scenarios